Match Preview
Are the glory days of Serie A back? José Mourinho’s Roma are in the Europa League final a year after winning the Conference League. Fiorentina are in the Conference League semi-finals. And, while we don’t know which way this tie will go, one of the Milan clubs will contest the Champions League final. Italy will once again have a representative in the final of Europe’s biggest club competition, six years after Juventus lost to Real Madrid in 2016-17.
For both AC Milan and Inter Milan, it’s been a long time since they last sat at Europe’s top table.
The Rossoneri are participating in their seventh UEFA Champions League semi-final but first since 2006-07. They’ve lost the first leg in each of their last two (vs. Barcelona in 2005-06 and Man Utd in 2006-07), although they did manage to come back and progress to the final in the most recent.
For Inter, it’s just the third time they’ve advanced this far in a UCL season. They lost the first leg in 2002-03 against their opponents for this tie, Milan, and were eliminated, while they won the first leg in 2009-10 against Barcelona and went on to win the competition that season.
This will be the fifth time Milan and Inter have faced each other in European competition, with Milan unbeaten across the previous four (W2 D2). They previously met at this stage of the UEFA Champions League in 2002-03, with Milan progressing to the final on away goals (1-1 on aggregate).
But that was then. And this is now. The two sides have already met on three occasions across all competitions in 2022-23, and while Milan won 3-2 in their meeting last September, Inter have won each of the last two (3-0 in the Italian Super Cup and 1-0 in Serie A). Simone Inzaghi’s side are favourites on the night to win at 6/4 but given their excellent recent defensive record against their great rivals, you can boost that to 11/4 by selecting them to win to nil.
It can be said that both sides have reached this stage in the competition by being rock solid at the back. Milan have only conceded one goal in their last six matches in the competition, with that lone strike coming in the 93rd minute against Napoli last time out. They’ve rode their luck at times facing 86 shots, 27 shots on target and an xG against of 6.8 in that timeframe, but they’re allowing their opponents shots worth just 0.08 per attempt. There’s something robust about Stefano Pioli’s backline.
For their part, Inter have been solid too. They’ve kept a clean sheet in six of their 10 matches in the Champions League this season, while they’ve never previously managed seven in a single campaign in the European Cup/UEFA Champions League. The Nerazzurri have lost just one of their last six away games in the Champions League (W3 D2), keeping four clean sheets in the process.
Additionally, with news emerging that Rafael Leão is an injury doubt, Milan lose their most potent player and could be content to keep the game close for when he returns in the second leg.
Prediction
The Opta supercomputer predicts this one to be a very close affair, with Inter (39.2%) just shading it on the night. Milan at 31.7% aren’t too far behind, while the draw is rated at 29.1%.
Overall in the tie, Inter are our favourites to progress to the final, with the supercomputer given them a 62.1% of doing just that. Should they progress, they’ll then face the winner of Manchester City vs Real Madrid.
And it’s on the outright market where some value might lie. Man City are unsurprisingly the supercomputer favourites to win the competition this year at 48.6%, but Inter (22.9%) are next ahead of Real Madrid (16.9%). That means the 13/2 outright price on Inter to win the whole thing could be value if you trust what the supercomputer is laying down.